SI Says Josh Allen Won’t Do Enough to Stop a New MVP From Rising in 2025—Joe Burrow Could Finally Take the Crown

Despite winning his first-ever NFL MVP award in February, Josh Allen might not repeat the feat in 2025—at least not according to Sports Illustrated’s senior reporter Albert Breer. In a recent breakdown of next season’s MVP outlook, Breer suggests that the Buffalo Bills’ superstar quarterback will likely fall short of holding off a new, hungry contender: Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow.

Allen was undeniably deserving of last season’s MVP honor. Even after losing his top targets Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, the Bills’ offense didn’t miss a beat. In fact, Allen still led the league’s second-highest scoring unit and made history by becoming the first player in NFL history to record at least 40 total touchdowns for five straight seasons. The Bills also became the first team to notch 30 passing touchdowns and 30 rushing touchdowns in a single regular season.

But as Allen prepares to defend his MVP title, the road ahead is far from easy—and SI’s Breer thinks the tide is turning.

Joe Burrow: Ready to Claim What He Almost Took Last Year

In Breer’s analysis, Joe Burrow might have had a better case for the MVP in 2024—even though the Bengals didn’t make the playoffs.

“The wild thing is that he could have won it last year,” Breer wrote, “in a season when the Bengals didn’t even make the playoffs. He threw more yards (4,918) and touchdowns (43) than anyone else, and had the most throws (652) and completions (460), too, while maintaining the fourth-highest completion percentage (70.6%) in all of football.”

Burrow’s passer rating of 108.5 was third-best in the league—impressive by any standard. But it’s how he did it that really stands out. The Bengals had the league’s 30th-ranked rushing offense and a bottom-tier defense (25th overall), which meant the pressure was squarely on Burrow’s shoulders all season. Still, he delivered consistently, often without key contributors like Tee Higgins, who struggled with injuries, or Ja’Marr Chase, who held out over contract issues. Yet Burrow kept the offense humming.

Even without playoff success, Breer believes the numbers and context of Burrow’s season made a strong MVP case—and with more support and team success in 2025, the Bengals’ star may finally get his due.

Josh Allen’s MVP Defense: Still a Contender, but Facing New Challenges

None of this is to say Josh Allen has lost his elite form. On the contrary—Breer acknowledges Allen’s brilliance, noting how he carried an evolving offense without major stars on the outside.

After Diggs and Davis exited, Buffalo tried to rebuild their receiving corps, bringing in former Chargers wideout Joshua Palmer. Still, the team lacks a clear No. 1 receiver. Despite that, Allen managed to steer the Bills to a dominant regular season that included wins over heavyweights like the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions. The team even finished with a better overall record than Baltimore—whose QB Lamar Jackson also had a strong MVP case.

Allen’s production was somewhat down in volume compared to Jackson’s, but context matters: he played more than 100 fewer snaps than his AFC rival. Unlike Jackson, who had the help of a generational back in Derrick Henry, Allen had to create most of the offense himself, often using both his arm and legs to keep the chains moving.

History Isn’t on Allen’s Side

One major hurdle for Allen is simple history. Back-to-back MVP wins are incredibly rare in the NFL. The last quarterback to do it was Aaron Rodgers in 2020 and 2021—and before that, it was Peyton Manning over a decade earlier. Even with MVP-level performances, voters often lean toward novelty or emerging storylines, which could work against Allen if Burrow or another fresh contender steps up.

Also, there’s the emotional and narrative weight of Burrow’s potential redemption arc. After nearly winning the MVP without postseason success, a strong 2025 campaign—with playoff wins to match—could be too compelling to ignore.

Still in the Race—If Allen Can Work More Magic

Of course, it’s far too early to count Josh Allen out. If he pulls off another 13-win season with a retooled receiving group and no true WR1, he’ll almost certainly be in the MVP conversation again. His ability to dominate both through the air and on the ground gives him a dual-threat advantage few can match. And if the Bills make another deep playoff run, especially with victories over major AFC contenders, voters may have no choice but to consider him for back-to-back honors.

It’s also worth noting that Allen’s leadership has been a stabilizing force for a Bills team that’s been quietly reshaping its identity. With an overhauled offense and emerging young players, he’s had to elevate those around him more than ever before.

What’s at Stake in 2025?

Both Allen and Burrow have a shot at glory in 2025, but the MVP race may come down to more than just stats. Team performance, media narratives, and even schedule strength could tip the balance.

If Burrow leads the Bengals back to the postseason while putting up the kind of video-game numbers he’s capable of, he could finally get the MVP recognition he’s been chasing. But if Allen continues to defy expectations and carries Buffalo to another dominant season—especially with less offensive firepower—voters may be forced to reconsider the case for a repeat MVP.

Conclusion

Albert Breer’s forecast doesn’t doubt Josh Allen’s talent—it just recognizes how crowded and competitive the MVP race will be in 2025. Joe Burrow has already built a compelling resume. If his team steps up and the Bengals deliver on their potential, it may finally be his turn. But as Allen has proven time and again, betting against him is rarely a smart move.

With the new season on the horizon, one thing’s certain: the 2025 MVP race is going to be one of the most exciting in recent memory.